Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?
  • 165
  • 3,472
  • $1,513,895
The 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election is scheduled for February 9, 2025. Daniel Noboa won a significant portion of votes in the first round with 44.2%, necessitating a second round against Luisa González, who also received nearly half of the total vote share. The election will be resolved as "Yes" if Noboa is officially declared president after the second round or "No" if there's no official declaration by July 31, 2025. The market includes any potential second round and resolves solely based on the first official announcement from the Ecuadorian Government.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityNov2024DecJan2025FebMarApr

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 166
  • $153,234

Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0576
-0.2744
0.9536
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1714
-0.5344
0.8167
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2916
-0.7765
0.6485
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2401
-0.6733
0.7211
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.011
+0.008
  • Manifold
  • 108
  • 16
  • $275

Who will win the Ecuador 2025 Presidential Election? | Daniel Noboa

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2288
-0.6507
0.7371
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1728
-0.5373
0.8149
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3703
-0.9379
0.5410
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3347
-0.8640
0.5889
Relative Score
D
+0.016
-0.032
-0.022
  • Metaculus
  • 44
  • 270

¿Será Daniel Noboa elegido Presidente de Ecuador en 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2013
-0.5954
0.7756
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1797
-0.5515
0.8054
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1708
-0.5331
0.8176
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1860
-0.5644
0.7968
Relative Score
A+
-0.069
+0.140
+0.097
  • Polymarket
  • 19
  • 3,186
  • $1,360,386

Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3364
-0.8675
0.5865
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3035
-0.8005
0.6319
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3025
-0.7985
0.6332
Relative Score
D-
+0.025
-0.051
-0.035
  • Overall
  • 165
  • 3,472
  • $1,513,895
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2060
-0.5970
0.7632
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2068
-0.6059
0.7672
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2776
-0.7492
0.6690
7 Days Before Close
F
0.2658
-0.7251
0.6850

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