Will the WGA writer's strike end before October 2023?
  • 82
  • 150
  • $234,324
If the Writers Guild of America (WGA) strike ends by September 30, 2023, this market resolves to Yes. The primary resolution source is official information from the WGA, with a consensus of credible reporting also considered. For the strike to be considered ended, both WGAW and WGAE must end the strike. If the WGA vote authorizes contract ratification, but the Board and Council later reject it or lift the restraining order without lifting the strike, this market still resolves to Yes. A resolution criteria of September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET applies for a successful outcome.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability9Jul1623306Aug1320273Sep101724

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 83
  • $211,544

Will the WGA vote to end the writers strike by Sep 30? | By Sep 30, 2023

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2304
-0.6539
0.7348
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4223
-1.0494
0.4743
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4900
-1.2040
0.3939
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7921
-2.2073
0.1227
Relative Score
F
+0.088
-0.323
-0.084
  • Manifold
  • 14
  • 120
  • $1,580

Will the WGA strike end by September 30?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3243
-0.8426
0.6031
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3722
-0.9418
0.5385
7 Days Before Close
F
0.6665
-1.6948
0.2195
Relative Score
A
-0.031
+0.131
+0.025
  • Polymarket
  • 13
  • 30
  • $21,200

Will the WGA strike end by September 30?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5112
-1.2553
0.3703
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4152
-1.0338
0.4833
7 Days Before Close
F
0.2970
-0.7875
0.6409
Relative Score
A-
-0.012
+0.040
+0.007
  • Overall
  • 82
  • 150
  • $234,324
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3553
-0.9173
0.5694
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4032
-1.0083
0.4987
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4900
-1.2040
0.3939
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5852
-1.5632
0.3277

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