Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.8478 | -2.5353 | 0.0857 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.7882 | -2.1877 | 0.1253 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.8742 | -2.7336 | 0.0693 |
7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0495 | -0.2518 | 0.9614 |
Relative Score | F | +0.151 | -0.662 | -0.116 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4809 | -1.1824 | 0.4043 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4592 | -1.1320 | 0.4296 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.4809 | -1.1824 | 0.4043 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.3724 | -0.9421 | 0.5383 |
Relative Score | S | -0.128 | +0.544 | +0.103 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4225 | -1.0498 | 0.4741 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.2786 | -0.7504 | 0.6667 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1806 | -0.5534 | 0.8042 |
Relative Score | A | -0.033 | +0.082 | +0.041 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5837 | -1.5892 | 0.3214 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5087 | -1.3567 | 0.4072 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.6776 | -1.9580 | 0.2368 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.2008 | -0.5824 | 0.7680 |
Manifold | D+ | +0.015 |
Metaculus | C | +0.002 |
Polymarket | A | -0.018 |