Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?
  • 363
  • 739
  • $540,924
Fianna Fáil is expected to win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election, with a resolution criteria based on winning the highest number of Members of Parliament elected. The outcome will be determined solely by Fianna Fáil's seat count, without considering any potential coalitions or alliances. In the event of a tie, the market resolves in favor of the party whose name comes first alphabetically. If an election is not held by December 31, 2024, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the Irish Government and Electoral Commission.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8478
-2.5353
0.0857
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.7882
-2.1877
0.1253
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8742
-2.7336
0.0693
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0495
-0.2518
0.9614
Relative Score
F
+0.151
-0.662
-0.116
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4809
-1.1824
0.4043
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4592
-1.1320
0.4296
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4809
-1.1824
0.4043
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3724
-0.9421
0.5383
Relative Score
S
-0.128
+0.544
+0.103
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4225
-1.0498
0.4741
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2786
-0.7504
0.6667
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1806
-0.5534
0.8042
Relative Score
A
-0.033
+0.082
+0.041
  • Overall
  • 363
  • 739
  • $540,924
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5837
-1.5892
0.3214
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5087
-1.3567
0.4072
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6776
-1.9580
0.2368
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2008
-0.5824
0.7680

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