Will Union win the most seats in the 2025 German election?
  • 618
  • 5,438
  • $11,315,326
The Union is currently in a tight race to win the most seats in the 2025 German election. With a complex landscape of parties and legislation affecting representation, a party's viability hinges on achieving at least 5% of the vote to secure a seat. The CSU, a regional party tied to the Union, faces uncertainty due to its opposition to the reduced seat barrier and ongoing lawsuit. The outcome will be determined by the final tally of seats won by each party, including any resulting from overhang or balancing mandates, as reflected in official results. A consensus-based resolution will also consider credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved through the German government's official results.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2023OctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0169
-0.1393
0.9890
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0193
-0.1494
0.9873
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0395
0.9992
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0406
0.9991
Relative Score
B-
-0.002
+0.018
+0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0090
-0.0998
0.9945
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0070
-0.0874
0.9959
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0030
-0.0566
0.9983
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0020
-0.0460
0.9989
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.018
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 618
  • 5,438
  • $11,315,326
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0130
-0.1195
0.9918
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0131
-0.1184
0.9916
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0023
-0.0480
0.9988
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0018
-0.0433
0.9990

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