Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.0169 | -0.1393 | 0.9890 |
Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.0193 | -0.1494 | 0.9873 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0015 | -0.0395 | 0.9992 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0016 | -0.0406 | 0.9991 |
Relative Score | B- | -0.002 | +0.018 | +0.002 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0090 | -0.0998 | 0.9945 |
Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0070 | -0.0874 | 0.9959 |
30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0030 | -0.0566 | 0.9983 |
7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0020 | -0.0460 | 0.9989 |
Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.018 | -0.002 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0130 | -0.1195 | 0.9918 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0131 | -0.1184 | 0.9916 |
30 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0023 | -0.0480 | 0.9988 |
7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0018 | -0.0433 | 0.9990 |
Manifold | F | +0.151 |
Metaculus | S | -0.128 |
Polymarket | A | -0.033 |
Manifold | B- | -0.003 |
Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
Polymarket | C- | +0.005 |