Will the Social Democratic party win the most seats in the 2024 Romanian parliamentary election?
  • 20
  • 1,087
  • $849,073
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place in Romania on December 1, 2024. The outcome will be determined by the Social Democratic Party's performance in the Chamber of Deputies, with the party winning most seats resolving the market to "Yes". In the event of a tie, the market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically. The resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the party, excluding any coalition affiliations. The market's outcome will be confirmed by the Romanian Government's official announcement of election results.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability15Nov171921232527291Dec3

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2549
-0.7030
0.7001
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0016
-0.0409
0.9991
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
A
-0.024
+0.054
+0.033
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0041
-0.0663
0.9977
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0445
-0.2369
0.9661
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2450
-0.6832
0.7141
Relative Score
D
+0.024
-0.054
-0.033
  • Overall
  • 20
  • 1,087
  • $849,073
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1295
-0.3847
0.8489
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0231
-0.1389
0.9826
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1227
-0.3517
0.8570

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