Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.2549 | -0.7030 | 0.7001 |
Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0016 | -0.0409 | 0.9991 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
Relative Score | A | -0.024 | +0.054 | +0.033 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0041 | -0.0663 | 0.9977 |
Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.0445 | -0.2369 | 0.9661 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.2450 | -0.6832 | 0.7141 |
Relative Score | D | +0.024 | -0.054 | -0.033 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1295 | -0.3847 | 0.8489 |
Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.0231 | -0.1389 | 0.9826 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1227 | -0.3517 | 0.8570 |
Kalshi | B | -0.006 |
Manifold | C | +0.003 |
Metaculus | C | +0.004 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.002 |
Manifold | F | +0.151 |
Metaculus | S | -0.128 |
Polymarket | A | -0.033 |