Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?
  • 382
  • 767
  • $75,248
SpaceX's Starship is being developed as a two-stage launch vehicle, with the first stage being the Super Heavy booster and the second stage being the Starship spacecraft. The question of whether Starship will reach orbit in 2024 is answered by reports from credible sources that meet specific criteria: the spacecraft must successfully reach an altitude of 100 kilometers above the Earth without breaking up, and for any period of time while at or above this altitude, it must achieve escape velocity or have a trajectory with an apogee of at least 300,000 kilometers. The market resolves to Yes if Starship achieves orbit before December 31, 2024, regardless of whether it completes a full orbit.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2916
-0.7765
0.6485
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2312
-0.6556
0.7336
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
S
-0.099
+0.257
+0.107
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7002
-1.8126
0.1915
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3857
-0.9703
0.5209
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0222
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0205
0.9998
Relative Score
F
+0.056
-0.205
-0.051
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7611
-2.0590
0.1447
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3466
-0.8884
0.5727
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0122
-0.1171
0.9924
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0033
-0.0588
0.9982
Relative Score
B+
-0.008
+0.019
+0.010
  • Overall
  • 382
  • 767
  • $75,248
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5843
-1.5494
0.3282
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3212
-0.8381
0.6091
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0048
-0.0600
0.9971
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0298
0.9993

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