Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2023?
  • 377
  • 819
  • $1,971
This question revolves around whether SpaceX's Starship will complete orbit in 2023, with a resolution criterion of at least one orbital spaceflight. The definition of orbit is based on a trajectory that allows for remaining in space for at least one full circle. A determination on this will be made by Scott Alexander, who has consulted experts on the matter and aims to generally adhere to this definition. The outcome will have no bearing on other predictions or evaluations on other platforms, such as Metaculus. The contest rules and full list of questions are available for further information.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOctJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4900
-1.2040
0.3939
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2972
-0.7879
0.6406
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0274
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0147
0.9999
Relative Score
B-
-0.004
-0.003
+0.008
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5061
-1.2427
0.3759
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3304
-0.8551
0.5947
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0026
-0.0519
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0253
0.9997
Relative Score
C
+0.004
+0.003
-0.008
  • Overall
  • 377
  • 819
  • $1,971
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4980
-1.2233
0.3849
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3138
-0.8215
0.6177
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0397
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0200
0.9998

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