Will Starship achieve liftoff before May 2023?
  • 4
  • 93
  • $168
On April 14th, SpaceX received a launch license for its Starship spacecraft. A launch scheduled for April 17th was scrubbed due to a frozen valve. The event resolution criteria depend on the platform but generally involve Starship leaving the launchpad intact and under its own power before a specific date or time. The outcome of this event is uncertain, with some platforms predicting a successful liftoff before May 1st, while others do not have a specified resolution date. Some platforms also include an opportunity for retrying in a few days after the initial scrubbed launch attempt.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability12 PMApr 1712 AMApr 1812 PM12 AMApr 1912 PM12 AMApr 2012 PM12 AMApr 2112 PM

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0804
-0.3333
0.9299
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0444
-0.2365
0.9662
Relative Score
D+
+0.012
-0.025
-0.016
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0637
-0.2910
0.9474
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0734
-0.3160
0.9374
Relative Score
A-
-0.012
+0.025
+0.016
  • Overall
  • 4
  • 93
  • $168
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0720
-0.3122
0.9386
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0589
-0.2763
0.9518

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