Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?
  • 287
  • 626
  • $606
This market aims to determine if SpaceX will attempt to catch a Starship booster with its tower in 2024. The resolution criteria for the question are that it will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, SpaceX attempts to make contact between the Super Heavy booster and either the tower or the catching arms during landing. An attempted catch must involve the booster being intact; an aborted attempt where the booster approaches the tower but does not make contact will not count, nor will a booster explosion resulting in debris coming into contact with the tower. The catch attempt can be part of an integrated flight test or occur separately, as long as the booster reaches an altitude of at least 10 kilometers before landing to qualify.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4011
-1.0033
0.5011
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1869
-0.5663
0.7955
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0325
-0.1987
0.9767
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0458
-0.2408
0.9649
Relative Score
A
-0.021
+0.052
+0.026
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4423
-1.0938
0.4498
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2259
-0.6448
0.7412
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0302
-0.1908
0.9786
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0961
-0.3712
0.9121
Relative Score
D
+0.021
-0.052
-0.026
  • Overall
  • 287
  • 626
  • $606
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4217
-1.0485
0.4754
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2064
-0.6055
0.7684
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0313
-0.1947
0.9776
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0710
-0.3060
0.9385

Similar Questions

  • 885
  • $106,521

Kalshi
C
+0.005
Manifold
C
+0.000
Metaculus
B-
-0.003
  • 767
  • $75,248

Kalshi
S
-0.099
Manifold
F
+0.056
Metaculus
B+
-0.008
  • 715
  • $262,612

Manifold
D+
+0.012
Polymarket
A-
-0.012
  • 946
  • $463,948

Kalshi
B
-0.006
Manifold
A+
-0.050
Polymarket
D+
+0.011
  • 819
  • $1,971

Manifold
B-
-0.004
Metaculus
C
+0.004
  • 93
  • $168

Manifold
D+
+0.012
Metaculus
A-
-0.012