Will the super heavy booster from SpaceX's Starship Flight 7 be caught?
  • 58
  • 946
  • $463,948
If the seventh Starship launch is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt, the event will be considered a successful catch. The market resolves to "Yes" if the booster is captured and supported without falling or causing damage, while a failed catch due to the rocket lifting off the pad or causing catastrophic damage will resolve to "No". A successful catch must meet specific criteria, including the chopsticks capturing the booster without it touching the ground. If no seventh Starship launch occurs by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No" regardless of whether a successful catch occurred previously. The resolution is determined by official video and secondary sources provided by SpaceX.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability24Nov1Dec81522295Jan12

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1521
-0.4943
0.8425
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1158
-0.4160
0.8887
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1296
-0.4463
0.8716
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0900
-0.3567
0.9191
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.013
+0.008
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0318
-0.1965
0.9772
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0417
-0.2283
0.9687
Relative Score
A+
-0.050
+0.132
+0.052
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1640
-0.5192
0.8267
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1306
-0.4486
0.8703
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1190
-0.4231
0.8848
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0870
-0.3496
0.9225
Relative Score
D+
+0.011
-0.024
-0.014
  • Overall
  • 58
  • 946
  • $463,948
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1160
-0.4033
0.8821
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0960
-0.3643
0.9092
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1243
-0.4347
0.8782
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0885
-0.3531
0.9208

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