Will Russia successfully land on the Moon with their first attempt?
  • 36
  • 150
  • $157
The question asks whether Russia will successfully land on the Moon with its first attempt. The resolution criteria include: 1) a soft landing, meaning controlled and gradual touchdown without damaging systems; 2) confirmation by credible media sources. Failure to achieve liftoff or destruction of the spaceship/lander does not count as a failure. The question resolves yes if Russia lands successfully on the Moon with its first attempt, otherwise it resolves no.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability16Jul23306Aug1320

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4356
-1.0788
0.4580
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4092
-1.0207
0.4908
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4855
-1.1932
0.3991
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4586
-1.1307
0.4303
Relative Score
F
+0.035
-0.076
-0.045
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3497
-0.8950
0.5685
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3404
-0.8757
0.5811
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3616
-0.9197
0.5525
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3337
-0.8619
0.5902
Relative Score
A
-0.035
+0.076
+0.045
  • Overall
  • 36
  • 150
  • $157
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3927
-0.9869
0.5132
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3748
-0.9482
0.5359
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4235
-1.0564
0.4758
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3961
-0.9963
0.5103

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