Will Pope Francis remain Pope through 2023?
  • 273
  • 80
  • $4,532

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMay2023JunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 271
  • 47
  • $82

Will Francis still be the pope by the end of 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0306
-0.1922
0.9783
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0186
-0.1467
0.9877
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0036
-0.0617
0.9980
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0032
-0.0581
0.9982
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.014
-0.002
  • Polymarket
  • 185
  • 33
  • $4,450

Will Pope Francis remain Pope through 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0065
-0.0842
0.9962
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0027
-0.0534
0.9985
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0413
0.9991
Relative Score
B-
-0.003
+0.014
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 273
  • 80
  • $4,532
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0165
-0.1218
0.9884
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0126
-0.1154
0.9920
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0031
-0.0576
0.9982
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0024
-0.0497
0.9987

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