Will Angus King (I) win the 2024 Maine Senate seat?
  • 209
  • 68
  • $113,095
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5, with a resolution determined by the party which wins the popular vote as reported by local, state, and federal governments. If the race is called early by major news organizations, it may optionally resolve early. The outcome is unaffected if any candidate switches parties after the beginning of Election Day. Candidates will be considered based on their listed party affiliation on the ballot.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMay2024JunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0010
-0.0328
0.9994
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0011
-0.0330
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0328
0.9994
Relative Score
B
-0.005
+0.019
+0.005
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0100
-0.1054
0.9939
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0069
-0.0870
0.9959
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0361
0.9993
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0317
0.9995
Relative Score
C-
+0.005
-0.019
-0.005
  • Overall
  • 209
  • 68
  • $113,095
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0055
-0.0691
0.9967
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0040
-0.0600
0.9977
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0361
0.9993
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0323
0.9995

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