Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?
  • 919
  • 145
  • $17,705
Costco has maintained the same price for its hot dog and soda combo since 1985, with no current plans to change it. The company's CEO has stated that the price will not be increased above $1.50. If a Costco location in the continental US increases the price of the combo or decreases either the weight of the hot dog or the volume of soda while maintaining the price at $1.50, the market resolves to Yes before 2025. However, if the combo is discontinued without any price change or quantity adjustment by 2025, the market resolves as Ambiguous. If only an announcement of intent to change the deal occurs before 2025, the market does not resolve.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2022OctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 246
  • $17,539

Will Costco change the price of hot dog combo before 2025? | Before 2025

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0072
-0.0888
0.9957
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C-
+0.006
-0.022
-0.004
  • Manifold
  • 718
  • 27
  • $166

Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0119
-0.1154
0.9926
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0243
-0.1695
0.9834
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0410
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0211
0.9998
Relative Score
D+
+0.010
-0.011
-0.012
  • Metaculus
  • 919
  • 118

Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0261
-0.1763
0.9819
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0273
-0.1807
0.9810
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0028
-0.0541
0.9985
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0031
-0.0575
0.9983
Relative Score
A-
-0.011
+0.022
+0.012
  • Overall
  • 919
  • 145
  • $17,705
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0135
-0.1143
0.9910
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0196
-0.1463
0.9867
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0351
0.9992
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0295
0.9993

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