Will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections before 2025?
  • 1,772
  • 215
  • $11
The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been marked by allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials, starting at the local level where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January. A public health worker released a video around January 26 claiming that at least 90,000 cases had occurred, while the official counts were significantly lower. The patterns of growth in the official counts suggest a model that doesn't accurately represent the disease's spread through the population. This misrepresentation could lead to public health interventions that don't reflect reality, affecting global commerce and epidemiological assessments. Estimations based on Chinese data may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the virus's spread or overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, which is critical to devising an appropriate public health response. The question will resolve as Yes if at least two public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers before January 1, 2025.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability20212022202320242025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2073
-0.6075
0.7673
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1664
-0.5241
0.8235
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0391
-0.2203
0.9709
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0090
-0.0994
0.9946
Relative Score
D
+0.021
-0.044
-0.028
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2025
-0.5979
0.7739
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2027
-0.5983
0.7736
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0312
-0.1945
0.9777
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0239
-0.1681
0.9837
Relative Score
A
-0.021
+0.044
+0.028
  • Overall
  • 1,772
  • 215
  • $11
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2049
-0.6027
0.7706
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1846
-0.5612
0.7985
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0352
-0.2074
0.9743
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0164
-0.1337
0.9891

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