Will Hurricane Milton become a Category 5 hurricane?
  • 3
  • 43
  • $8,140
The markets predict that a hurricane named Milton will reach maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, making it a Category 5 hurricane. The resolution criteria for this outcome is being met at least once before November 30, 2024. If the event occurs prior to November 30, the market expires on the first business day after the occurrence. The outcome of Milton becoming a Category 5 hurricane will determine the result of these markets.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability12 PMOct 512 AMOct 612 PM12 AMOct 712 PM12 AMOct 812 PM

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3364
-0.8675
0.5865
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2149
-0.6228
0.7566
Relative Score
S
-0.077
+0.206
+0.091
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7416
-1.9744
0.1592
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5979
-1.4839
0.2814
Relative Score
F
+0.077
-0.206
-0.091
  • Overall
  • 3
  • 43
  • $8,140
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5390
-1.4210
0.3728
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4064
-1.0534
0.5190

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