Will there be more than 25 named tropical storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?
  • 209
  • 503
  • $724,195
This market predicts whether the Atlantic Hurricane Season will produce more than 25 named storms from June 1 to November 30, with the resolution based on NOAA's list of named storms during that period. The market's outcome is determined by whether NOAA names more than 25 storms during the season. Storms that form before but remain active during the designated period are included in the count. If a potential storm isn't classified by November 30 at midnight, it may still impact the market's resolution on December 1. The market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names more than 25 storms and to "No" otherwise.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJun2024JulAugSepOctNovDec

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0081
-0.0943
0.9951
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0478
-0.2466
0.9631
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
-0.003
+0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0196
-0.1508
0.9870
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0531
-0.2620
0.9579
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0050
1.0000
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0020
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.001
+0.003
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 209
  • 503
  • $724,195
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0139
-0.1226
0.9911
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0504
-0.2543
0.9605
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0177
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0060
1.0000

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