Will there be more than 15 named tropical storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?
  • 268
  • 1,055
  • $3,688,832
This market predicts whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name fewer than 16 storms during the Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 to November 30. The event is resolved to "Yes" if NOAA names fewer than 16 storms, and to "No" if 16 or more storms are named during this period. Storms that form before the designated period but remain active during it will count towards this market's resolution. If a potential storm hasn't been classified by November 30, the market may remain open until December 1 to determine if classification occurred prior to midnight. The market resolves based on NOAA's list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0049
-0.0726
0.9972
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0498
-0.2524
0.9612
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2500
-0.6931
0.7071
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
Relative Score
D
+0.018
-0.043
-0.021
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0077
-0.0916
0.9954
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0379
-0.2165
0.9720
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0588
-0.2777
0.9524
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0118
-0.1148
0.9927
Relative Score
A
-0.018
+0.043
+0.021
  • Overall
  • 268
  • 1,055
  • $3,688,832
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0063
-0.0821
0.9963
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0438
-0.2344
0.9666
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1544
-0.4854
0.8297
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0063
-0.0727
0.9961

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