Will Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore leave the ISS before January 2025?
  • 143
  • 1,669
  • $686,236
Astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore are expected to leave the International Space Station (ISS) by December 31, 2024. If they depart on a spacecraft that has undocked from the ISS and begun its return journey to Earth, the event is considered resolved. The outcome will be determined by official NASA announcements, with credible reporting providing an additional source of confirmation. The market will resolve to "Yes" if the astronauts depart before the specified deadline, and to "No" otherwise. If a credible report contradicts an official announcement, the market's resolution may still depend on the original statement from NASA.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilitySep2024OctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0006
-0.0238
0.9997
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0015
-0.0398
0.9992
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0238
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0238
0.9997
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.008
+0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0024
-0.0497
0.9987
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0031
-0.0573
0.9983
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0197
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0055
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.008
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 143
  • 1,669
  • $686,236
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0015
-0.0367
0.9992
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0023
-0.0485
0.9987
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0217
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0146
0.9998

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