Will Wisconsin be the closest state in the 2024 Presidential election?
  • 467
  • 2,811
  • $4,810,982
Wisconsin is being considered as the closest state in the 2024 Presidential election based on the margin of victory between the top two candidates. The resolution criteria for each market involves calculating the percentage of votes received by the first and second-place candidates in Wisconsin and determining the smallest margin of victory. If the difference between these percentages is the smallest among all states, then the respective market resolves to "Yes", indicating that Wisconsin had the closest election. The markets will remain open until official vote counts are certified, with any recounts after certification not being considered as part of the resolution criteria. Once votes have been officially counted and certified, the market will resolve accordingly based on the actual percentages of the vote received by each candidate in Wisconsin.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2023Jan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 92
  • $4,315,827

Will Wisconsin be the closest state in the Presidential election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6897
-1.7748
0.2000
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0840
-0.3422
0.9259
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7558
-2.0354
0.1486
7 Days Before Close
F
0.6552
-1.6578
0.2291
Relative Score
A+
-0.055
+0.211
+0.047
  • Manifold
  • 474
  • 27
  • $57

What will be the closest state in the 2024 POTUS election? | Wisconsin

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7950
-2.2220
0.1207
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.7917
-2.2051
0.1230
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7993
-2.2448
0.1177
7 Days Before Close
F
0.8172
-2.3431
0.1056
Relative Score
F
+0.066
-0.288
-0.051
  • Polymarket
  • 71
  • 2,784
  • $495,098

Will Wisconsin be the closest state?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7439
-1.9841
0.1574
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1297
-0.4465
0.8715
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0146
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7140
-1.8643
0.1804
Relative Score
B-
-0.003
+0.004
+0.004
  • Overall
  • 467
  • 2,811
  • $4,810,982
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7429
-1.9936
0.1594
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3351
-0.9979
0.6401
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5184
-1.4316
0.4221
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7288
-1.9551
0.1717

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