Will Arizona be the last state called in the 2024 Presidential election?
  • 97
  • 130
  • $554,828
Arizona will be the last state called if all major networks (CNN and AP) call Arizona as the final state in declaring a winner after three weeks of no further updates. The resolution criteria are based on an official graphic, statement by an anchor/caster, or 30 minutes passing without correction for CNN; for AP, it's the first official declaration of a winner regardless of later retraction. If major networks don't call multiple states by December 10, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET, this market resolves to "No". The resolution source is official information from each network. If Arizona is called as the last state by CNN or AP without further updates, the market resolves to "Yes".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability11Aug18251Sep81522296Oct1320273Nov10

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0400
-0.2231
0.9701
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1628
-0.5166
0.8283
7 Days Before Close
F
0.6241
-1.5606
0.2569
Relative Score
S
-0.108
+0.332
+0.107
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7783
-2.1387
0.1324
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.7717
-2.1077
0.1370
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7877
-2.1849
0.1257
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7946
-2.2199
0.1210
Relative Score
D-
+0.032
-0.143
-0.024
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7396
-1.9661
0.1607
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5979
-1.4838
0.2814
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7396
-1.9661
0.1607
Relative Score
C
+0.003
+0.017
-0.007
  • Overall
  • 97
  • 130
  • $554,828
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5193
-1.4426
0.4211
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5108
-1.3694
0.4156
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7877
-2.1849
0.1257
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7194
-1.9156
0.1795

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