Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state in the 2024 US presidential election?
  • 338
  • 1,174
  • $1,459,140
A tipping point state is a battleground state from the winning candidate's perspective, offering the 270th electoral vote that determines the Electoral College majority. The market resolves to the state where adding its electoral votes to the cumulative total first reaches or exceeds 270 for the winning candidate, based on the official vote count once all jurisdictions have certified their votes. In Pennsylvania, if the popular vote margin is known within sufficient margin to determine the tipping point state, and there are no absolute majority in the electoral college (eg, a 269-269 tie), this market resolves to "Yes", otherwise it resolves to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count once all the listed jurisdictions have certified their votes.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 344
  • 127
  • $616

Which state will be the tipping point in the 2024 US presidential election? | Pennsylvania

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6504
-1.6425
0.2333
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5165
-1.2684
0.3645
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4356
-1.0788
0.4580
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4883
-1.2000
0.3958
Relative Score
A-
-0.014
+0.040
+0.015
  • Metaculus
  • 191
  • 28

Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election? | Pennsylvania

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4742
-1.1668
0.4120
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4924
-1.2097
0.3912
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4388
-1.0860
0.4540
7 Days Before Close
F
0.2946
-0.7826
0.6442
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.019
-0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 156
  • 1,019
  • $1,458,524

Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4389
-1.0862
0.4539
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2460
-0.6851
0.7128
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4658
-1.1473
0.4218
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4830
-1.1874
0.4019
Relative Score
D+
+0.012
-0.028
-0.014
  • Overall
  • 338
  • 1,174
  • $1,459,140
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5212
-1.2985
0.3664
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4183
-1.0544
0.4895
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4467
-1.1040
0.4446
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4220
-1.0567
0.4806

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