Will Trump win all seven swing states?
  • 118
  • 5,615
  • $19,557,667
If Donald Trump wins 7 of the swing states (Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, or Georgia) in the 2024 election and either NBC, Fox News, or the Associated Press officially certifies him as the winner in each state, then he is considered to have won all seven states. The market resolves based on the official certification criteria, with only one source required for a resolution. Markets that focus solely on electoral college outcomes consider the following seven states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. However, others resolve if Trump wins every swing state across all platforms, regardless of the source or timing.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityAug2024SepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 74
  • $3,336,112

Will Donald Trump win 7 swing states?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5385
-1.3236
0.3410
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0179
-0.1435
0.9883
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5385
-1.3236
0.3410
Relative Score
B+
-0.009
+0.023
+0.009
  • Manifold
  • 35
  • 197
  • $422

Will Trump win all seven swing states?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6658
-1.6927
0.2200
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6632
-1.6841
0.2222
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7699
-2.0992
0.1383
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5589
-1.3766
0.3199
Relative Score
F
+0.055
-0.164
-0.053
  • Polymarket
  • 121
  • 5,418
  • $16,221,133

Trump wins every swing state?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6162
-1.5371
0.2642
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5827
-1.4412
0.2961
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6175
-1.5410
0.2629
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5256
-1.2910
0.3547
Relative Score
A
-0.040
+0.120
+0.038
  • Overall
  • 118
  • 5,615
  • $19,557,667
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6068
-1.5178
0.2751
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4213
-1.0896
0.5022
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4628
-1.2235
0.4669
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5410
-1.3304
0.3385

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