Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?
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  • $39
The Insurrection Act of 1807 is a United States federal law empowering the president to call in the US Armed Forces and National Guard under specific circumstances. These include when requested by a state's legislature or governor to address an insurrection, or to enforce law in states where it is impracticable due to domestic violence or other conditions that violate constitutionally secured rights. Recent events such as protests and the Capitol Hill attack have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This act has been used at least 23 times since its first invocation by Thomas Jefferson in 1808, most recently by George H.W. Bush in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots. If the US federal government invokes the Insurrection Act between January 1, 2022 and January 1, 2025, this will be considered a positive resolution for the question of whether it will be invoked before 2025.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability2022202320242025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0075
-0.0908
0.9955
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0154
-0.1326
0.9901
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0056
-0.0777
0.9968
7 Days Before Close
B-
0.0049
-0.0726
0.9972
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.002
-0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0736
-0.3165
0.9371
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0442
-0.2359
0.9664
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0028
-0.0541
0.9985
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0020
-0.0456
0.9989
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.002
+0.001
  • Overall
  • 1,439
  • 114
  • $39
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0406
-0.2037
0.9663
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0298
-0.1843
0.9782
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0042
-0.0659
0.9976
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0034
-0.0591
0.9980

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