Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law in 2024?
  • 231
  • 876
  • $450,119
California's SB 1047 AI safety bill is being debated in the state assembly. The Governor has until September 30 to sign it into law, and a resolution will occur if the bill becomes law by that date or if it passes the legislative session on August 31. A "Yes" outcome requires the bill to be signed into law by the Governor, while a "No" outcome requires either lack of passage before August 31 or veto followed by override failure. The market's resolution criteria are tied to key dates in the legislative process, with some flexibility for Governor vetoes and overrides.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSep

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4189
-1.0419
0.4786
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1813
-0.5548
0.8033
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2774
-0.7479
0.6685
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0792
-0.3305
0.9311
Relative Score
C-
+0.006
-0.014
-0.007
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2162
-0.6255
0.7548
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1572
-0.5049
0.8358
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2970
-0.7875
0.6409
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0625
-0.2877
0.9487
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.014
+0.007
  • Overall
  • 231
  • 876
  • $450,119
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3176
-0.8337
0.6167
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1692
-0.5299
0.8195
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2872
-0.7677
0.6547
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0708
-0.3091
0.9399

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