Will Section 230 be revoked or amended in the US before January 2025?
  • 1,065
  • 79
  • $7,703
A proposed bill, the EARN-IT Act of 2020, aims to modify Section 230. The SAFE TECH Act and the Justice Against Malicious Algorithms Act also propose changes to the law. Modifications could include amendments or introduce a commission that can remove Section 230 immunities from specific companies. A law that causes Section 230 to be interpreted differently would count as modification.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2022JulOctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 314
  • $7,604

Section 230 weakened by Dec 31, 2024? | In 2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0067
-0.0856
0.9960
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
Relative Score
A
-0.029
+0.119
+0.024
  • Manifold
  • 593
  • 24
  • $99

Will there be Section 230 reform before 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1818
-0.5558
0.8025
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1468
-0.4832
0.8494
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0704
-0.3083
0.9405
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0081
-0.0943
0.9951
Relative Score
F
+0.068
-0.163
-0.082
  • Metaculus
  • 1,064
  • 55

Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0859
-0.3469
0.9237
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0899
-0.3564
0.9193
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0071
-0.0879
0.9958
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0026
-0.0524
0.9986
Relative Score
A
-0.027
+0.059
+0.035
  • Overall
  • 1,065
  • 79
  • $7,703
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0898
-0.3145
0.9085
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0812
-0.3084
0.9216
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0267
-0.1492
0.9783
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0044
-0.0660
0.9974

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