Will Biden be removed under the 25th Amendment during his current term?
  • 914
  • 531
  • $1,587,541
Will Biden's term be affected by 25th Amendment procedures? This market resolves to "Yes" if Joe Biden is formally removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment before November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. A temporary transfer of power via Section 3 does not affect this resolution. If Biden dies or leaves office before the specified date for any reason other than removal via Section 4, the market resolves to "No". The resolution is based on official information from the US government.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2022Jan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 915
  • 21
  • $101

Will Biden's VP assume the role of Acting President under the 25th Amendment for 24 consecutive hours during his current term?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0052
-0.0749
0.9970
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0083
-0.0957
0.9950
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0158
-0.1345
0.9898
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0175
0.9998
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.050
-0.005
  • Polymarket
  • 122
  • 510
  • $1,587,441

Biden removed via 25th Amendment?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0010
-0.0320
0.9995
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0011
-0.0334
0.9994
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0171
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0060
1.0000
Relative Score
B
-0.007
+0.050
+0.005
  • Overall
  • 914
  • 531
  • $1,587,541
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0031
-0.0535
0.9982
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0047
-0.0646
0.9972
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0081
-0.0758
0.9948
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0118
0.9999

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