Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.0400 | -0.2231 | 0.9701 |
Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.0152 | -0.1314 | 0.9903 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0171 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0095 | 1.0000 |
Relative Score | B | -0.007 | +0.024 | +0.006 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0602 | -0.2815 | 0.9510 |
Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.0261 | -0.1762 | 0.9819 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0142 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0126 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | D+ | +0.011 | -0.041 | -0.010 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0042 | -0.0672 | 0.9976 |
Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0057 | -0.0785 | 0.9967 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0146 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0065 | 1.0000 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.000 | +0.001 | +0.000 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.0348 | -0.1906 | 0.9729 |
Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.0157 | -0.1287 | 0.9896 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0153 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0095 | 1.0000 |
Kalshi | C+ | -0.000 |
Manifold | B | -0.005 |
Metaculus | C+ | -0.000 |
Polymarket | C- | +0.009 |
Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
Manifold | C+ | -0.001 |
Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
Manifold | A | -0.017 |
Metaculus | F | +0.069 |
Polymarket | C | +0.003 |
Kalshi | A | -0.035 |
Manifold | F | +0.066 |
Metaculus | A+ | -0.046 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |