Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?
  • 1,861
  • 2,100
  • $5,206,825
This market considers whether the House of Representatives approves articles of impeachment against the President of the United States before a specified time frame. The specific resolution criteria vary among platforms: some markets resolve as "Yes" if the process is completed during Biden's first term, while others require the impeachment to be approved before November 5, 2024. Additionally, some platforms do not consider scenarios where impeachment occurs after Joe Biden leaves office or finishes his first presidential term.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability202020212022202320242025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0400
-0.2231
0.9701
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0152
-0.1314
0.9903
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0171
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0095
1.0000
Relative Score
B
-0.007
+0.024
+0.006
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0602
-0.2815
0.9510
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0261
-0.1762
0.9819
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0142
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0126
0.9999
Relative Score
D+
+0.011
-0.041
-0.010
  • Polymarket
  • 307
  • 500
  • $5,200,115

Joe Biden impeached before 2024 election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0057
-0.0785
0.9967
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0146
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0065
1.0000
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.001
+0.000
  • Overall
  • 1,861
  • 2,100
  • $5,206,825
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0348
-0.1906
0.9729
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0157
-0.1287
0.9896
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0153
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0095
1.0000

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