A full-scale invasion of China into Taiwan in 2023 is deemed a plausible scenario where China intends to establish control over at least half of the island. The resolution criteria are based on Scott Alexander's judgment, as outlined in his prediction contest rules. A successful outcome would involve China achieving significant territorial gains or taking actions indicative of an intention to conquer the island. In contrast, a failure would be indicated by the absence of major military interventions or significant progress towards establishing control. Market outcomes will be determined solely by Scott Alexander's assessment of the situation, excluding individual prediction contributions on other platforms.