Will Lai Ching-te (DPP) win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?
  • 135
  • 556
  • $1,810,399
Taiwan's 2024 presidential election is scheduled to take place on January 13, 2024, and will determine the country's political direction amidst ongoing tensions with China. Four candidates have declared for the election: Lai Ching-te, the current Vice President representing the ruling Democratic Progressive Party; Hou Yu-ih, the Mayor of New Taipei running for the Kuomintang; Ko Wen-je, the former Mayor of Taipei leading the Taiwan People's Party; and Terry Gou, the Foxconn founder running as an Independent. The winner will be inaugurated on May 20, 2024, and their outcome may reverberate globally. If Lai Ching-te wins, this event resolves to "Yes", while all other candidates result in a "No".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilitySep2023OctNovDecJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 131
  • 133
  • $845

🇹🇼 Taiwan Presidential Election 2024: who will win? 🗳 | 🟢 Lai Ching-te - DPP

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1197
-0.4246
0.8840
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1156
-0.4154
0.8890
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1137
-0.4112
0.8913
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0885
-0.3531
0.9209
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.003
+0.002
  • Metaculus
  • 136
  • 56

Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP))

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1523
-0.4948
0.8422
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1228
-0.4314
0.8801
30 Days Before Close
D
0.1017
-0.3840
0.9057
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0452
-0.2389
0.9655
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.014
-0.009
  • Polymarket
  • 79
  • 367
  • $1,809,554

Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0812
-0.3355
0.9289
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0958
-0.3703
0.9126
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0506
-0.2549
0.9603
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0650
-0.2944
0.9461
Relative Score
A-
-0.013
+0.033
+0.015
  • Overall
  • 135
  • 556
  • $1,810,399
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1177
-0.4183
0.8850
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1114
-0.4057
0.8939
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0887
-0.3500
0.9191
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0662
-0.2954
0.9441

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