Will any BARDA mask be available on Amazon for <$1 before 2025?
  • 936
  • 158
  • $11
The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted innovation in face masks, including through a US BARDA mask innovation challenge. According to BARDA's target product profile, the main performance measures for its challenge are Thermal Burden & Moisture Retention, Breathability, Leakage Ratio, and Filter Efficiency. The challenge will result in two top winning designs and two runner-ups, with at least one of the four winning designs being commercially available and costing less than $1 per unit on or before December 31, 2024. This availability would be measured if the mask is sold on Amazon for at least six consecutive months at a price of less than $1 per unit (or up to $25 per unit for reusable masks lasting at least a month of daily usage). The resolution of this question will be determined by whether any of the winning designs meet these criteria.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2022OctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0552
-0.2678
0.9560
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0904
-0.3577
0.9187
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0169
-0.1393
0.9890
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0169
-0.1393
0.9890
Relative Score
D
+0.021
-0.058
-0.025
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0470
-0.2444
0.9637
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0623
-0.2871
0.9489
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0017
-0.0424
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0379
0.9993
Relative Score
A
-0.021
+0.058
+0.025
  • Overall
  • 936
  • 158
  • $11
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0511
-0.2561
0.9598
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0763
-0.3224
0.9338
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0093
-0.0908
0.9940
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0091
-0.0886
0.9941

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