Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0552 | -0.2678 | 0.9560 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0904 | -0.3577 | 0.9187 |
30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.0169 | -0.1393 | 0.9890 |
7 Days Before Close | C- | 0.0169 | -0.1393 | 0.9890 |
Relative Score | D | +0.021 | -0.058 | -0.025 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.0470 | -0.2444 | 0.9637 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0623 | -0.2871 | 0.9489 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0017 | -0.0424 | 0.9991 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0014 | -0.0379 | 0.9993 |
Relative Score | A | -0.021 | +0.058 | +0.025 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0511 | -0.2561 | 0.9598 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0763 | -0.3224 | 0.9338 |
30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0093 | -0.0908 | 0.9940 |
7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0091 | -0.0886 | 0.9941 |
Kalshi | C | +0.003 |
Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
Polymarket | C | +0.003 |