Will the contents of the Matt Gaetz ethics report be made public before January 2025?
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  • $75,283
A prediction that the contents of the Matt Gaetz ethics report will be made public before January 1, 2025, is being considered. The event's resolution criteria are tied to the release of the report by the House Ethics Committee or its public disclosure through a leak. If the report is fully released, even if only available to members of Congress, it is considered a "Yes". Partial releases or leaks that include information from credible sources also qualify as a "Yes" outcome. The primary source for resolving this event will be official information and consensus among credible reporters.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability17Nov241Dec8152229

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5559
-1.3688
0.3229
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3914
-0.9824
0.5135
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5072
-1.2455
0.3747
7 Days Before Close
F
0.8190
-2.3538
0.1044
Relative Score
D-
+0.032
-0.077
-0.040
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0108
-0.1098
0.9933
Relative Score
A
-0.032
+0.077
+0.040
  • Overall
  • 48
  • 160
  • $75,283
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2801
-0.7180
0.6603
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2011
-0.5461
0.7534
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5072
-1.2455
0.3747
7 Days Before Close
F
0.8190
-2.3538
0.1044

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