Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5559 | -1.3688 | 0.3229 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3914 | -0.9824 | 0.5135 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5072 | -1.2455 | 0.3747 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.8190 | -2.3538 | 0.1044 |
Relative Score | D- | +0.032 | -0.077 | -0.040 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0042 | -0.0672 | 0.9976 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0108 | -0.1098 | 0.9933 |
Relative Score | A | -0.032 | +0.077 | +0.040 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.2801 | -0.7180 | 0.6603 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.2011 | -0.5461 | 0.7534 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5072 | -1.2455 | 0.3747 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.8190 | -2.3538 | 0.1044 |
Kalshi | C | +0.002 |
Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
Polymarket | C | +0.002 |
Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
Manifold | C- | +0.007 |
Metaculus | D- | +0.028 |
Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
Manifold | C+ | -0.000 |
Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
Manifold | A | -0.021 |
Polymarket | C- | +0.006 |