Will Bashar al-Assad be in power in Syria until the end of 2024?
  • 448
  • 3,003
  • $7,577,952
Bashar al-Assad remains in power as President of Syria until December 31, 2024. If he officially holds the office at midnight on that date, it is considered a "Yes". The definition of "in power" includes any official capacity, as confirmed by reliable sources. If Assad departs from office before the expiry date or is removed from his position for any reason, the market resolves to "No". A consensus of credible reporting will also be used to resolve this market if it differs from CIA World Factbook information.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 425
  • 77
  • $56

Will Bashar al-Assad be in power in Syria until the end of 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8535
-2.5752
0.0821
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.7791
-2.1428
0.1318
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8535
-2.5752
0.0821
7 Days Before Close
F
0.6232
-1.5579
0.2577
Relative Score
A+
-0.047
+0.313
+0.035
  • Polymarket
  • 21
  • 2,926
  • $7,577,896

Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.9264
-3.2834
0.0389
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.8358
-2.4559
0.0934
7 Days Before Close
F
0.8492
-2.5447
0.0849
Relative Score
F
+0.047
-0.313
-0.035
  • Overall
  • 448
  • 3,003
  • $7,577,952
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8900
-2.9293
0.0605
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.8075
-2.2994
0.1126
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8535
-2.5752
0.0821
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7362
-2.0513
0.1713

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