Will Mazie Hirono (D) win the 2024 Hawaii Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 202
  • $51,363
This market covers the outcome of the 2024 Hawaii Senate election between Mazie Hirono (D) and Bob McDermott (R), with a resolution criteria based on the party affiliation of the eventual winner. The market may resolve early if a major news organization calls the race for one of the candidates, or wait until Election Day to determine the outcome. If either candidate switches parties after the start of voting, the switch will not affect the outcome. The market's resolution is ultimately determined by official certification from the local government and the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0005
-0.0235
0.9997
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0005
-0.0235
0.9997
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0230
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0230
0.9997
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.016
+0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0056
-0.0780
0.9967
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0027
-0.0537
0.9985
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0097
1.0000
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.016
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 202
  • $51,363
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0031
-0.0507
0.9982
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0016
-0.0386
0.9991
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0164
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0165
0.9998

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