Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0235 | 0.9997 |
Time-Weighted Average | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0235 | 0.9997 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0230 | 0.9997 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0230 | 0.9997 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | +0.016 | +0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0056 | -0.0780 | 0.9967 |
Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0027 | -0.0537 | 0.9985 |
30 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0097 | 1.0000 |
7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.016 | -0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0031 | -0.0507 | 0.9982 |
Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0016 | -0.0386 | 0.9991 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0164 | 0.9998 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0165 | 0.9998 |
Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
Manifold | C | +0.002 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |