Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0011 | -0.0336 | 0.9994 |
Time-Weighted Average | A- | 0.0021 | -0.0469 | 0.9988 |
30 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0029 | -0.0551 | 0.9984 |
7 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0029 | -0.0551 | 0.9984 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.008 | +0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0030 | -0.0566 | 0.9983 |
Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0039 | -0.0641 | 0.9978 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0211 | 0.9998 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0248 | 0.9997 |
Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.008 | -0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0021 | -0.0451 | 0.9989 |
Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0030 | -0.0555 | 0.9983 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0017 | -0.0381 | 0.9991 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0017 | -0.0400 | 0.9990 |
Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
Manifold | C | +0.002 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
Kalshi | B | -0.008 |
Manifold | D | +0.016 |
Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |