Will Maria Cantwell (D) win the 2024 Washington Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 37
  • $16,400
This market resolves to "Yes" if Maria Cantwell wins the 2024 Washington Senate seat, which is determined by the popular vote as reported by local, state, and federal governments. The resolution criteria are tied to when major news organizations call the race; if one of them calls it early, the market may resolve prematurely. However, if a candidate switches parties after Election Day, their switch won't affect the outcome. Regular senatorial elections take place in 33 states, including Washington's, with US general elections scheduled for November 5, 2024. The resolution source is initially based on Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calls; if they all call the same candidate, the market resolves to "Yes", otherwise it resolves based on official certification.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0011
-0.0336
0.9994
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0021
-0.0469
0.9988
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0029
-0.0551
0.9984
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0029
-0.0551
0.9984
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.008
+0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0030
-0.0566
0.9983
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0039
-0.0641
0.9978
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0211
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0248
0.9997
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.008
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 37
  • $16,400
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0021
-0.0451
0.9989
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0030
-0.0555
0.9983
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0017
-0.0381
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0017
-0.0400
0.9990

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