Will Yadira Caraveo (D) win Colorado's 8th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 236
  • 99
  • $200,025
Will Yadira Caraveo win Colorado's 8th congressional district in the 2024 election. The markets focus on competitive US House Races and assess the balance of power between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. Markets resolve based on whether a member of either party wins the race, with undecided or third-party candidates split 50-50. For this particular market, a Democrat winning the seat by any margin is considered a win for the party, while the resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. The markets track competitive seats and provide additional analysis from reputable sources such as Race to The White House, The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8734
-2.7263
0.0699
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0131
-0.1217
0.9917
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
F
0.8734
-2.7263
0.0699
Relative Score
A
-0.034
+0.077
+0.039
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1650
-0.5212
0.8254
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3416
-0.8781
0.5795
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4082
-1.0187
0.4920
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3480
-0.8915
0.5707
Relative Score
D-
+0.027
-0.066
-0.028
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
S
0.0000
-0.0025
1.0000
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0206
-0.1549
0.9863
Relative Score
C-
+0.009
-0.007
-0.012
  • Overall
  • 236
  • 99
  • $200,025
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3461
-1.0833
0.6317
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1251
-0.3849
0.8525
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2043
-0.5195
0.7459
7 Days Before Close
F
0.6107
-1.8089
0.3203

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