Will Angela Alsobrooks (D) win the 2024 Maryland Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 173
  • $446,005
The markets will resolve to "Yes" if Angela Alsobrooks (D) or another representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as Senator in Maryland for the term beginning in 2025. The outcome is determined by the local, state, and federal governments, with major news organizations such as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC serving as a final authority on election results. If Angela Alsobrooks switches parties after the beginning of Election Day, her switch will not affect the market's resolution. The markets may resolve early if the race is called by the major news organizations or based on official certification if all three sources haven't called the race for the same candidate.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0101
-0.1058
0.9938
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0017
-0.0421
0.9991
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0082
-0.0952
0.9950
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0078
-0.0923
0.9954
Relative Score
C
+0.000
+0.000
-0.000
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0130
-0.1211
0.9918
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0081
-0.0946
0.9951
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0064
-0.0836
0.9962
Relative Score
A-
-0.011
+0.042
+0.009
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0289
-0.1863
0.9797
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0286
-0.1853
0.9799
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0090
-0.0998
0.9945
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0077
-0.0916
0.9954
Relative Score
D+
+0.011
-0.041
-0.009
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 173
  • $446,005
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0173
-0.1378
0.9884
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0128
-0.1073
0.9914
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0072
-0.0874
0.9957
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0073
-0.0892
0.9957

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