Will Lisa Blunt (D) win the 2024 Delaware Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 46
  • $41,561
Will Lisa Blunt (D) win the 2024 Delaware Senate seat? This market resolves to "Yes" if Lisa Blunt (D) is declared the winner by at least one of three main news organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), or if she is certified as the official winner after all major news organizations have called the race for her. If she switches parties after Election Day, her switch will not affect the outcome. The market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 272
  • 8
  • $14

Delaware US Senate Race: Lisa Blunt Rochester vs. Eric Hansen | Lisa Blunt Rochester (Democratic Party)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0005
-0.0227
0.9997
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0013
-0.0373
0.9993
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0020
-0.0461
0.9989
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0348
0.9994
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.012
+0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 209
  • 38
  • $41,546

Will a Democrat win Delaware US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0049
-0.0726
0.9972
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0041
-0.0665
0.9976
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0222
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0274
0.9996
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.012
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 46
  • $41,561
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0027
-0.0477
0.9985
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0027
-0.0519
0.9985
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0342
0.9993
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0009
-0.0311
0.9995

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