Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?
  • 936
  • 142
  • $2
The question pertains to whether a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program will be sponsored or supported by the US CDC before 2025. The resolution criteria includes at least 50 total sites in at least 10 different counties actively doing metagenomic sequencing on environmental samples or random clinical samples, and one of the goals should be identification of novel pathogens. This would resolve as Yes if the program meets these conditions on or before December 31, 2024, based on credible media reports. Examples of what such a program might take include the CDC's COVID wastewater surveillance program, which already has hundreds of US counties represented and is active.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2022OctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0563
-0.2707
0.9549
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0608
-0.2831
0.9504
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0496
-0.2518
0.9613
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0496
-0.2518
0.9613
Relative Score
C-
+0.008
-0.027
-0.006
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0273
-0.1808
0.9809
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0309
-0.1933
0.9780
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0099
1.0000
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0088
1.0000
Relative Score
B
-0.008
+0.027
+0.006
  • Overall
  • 936
  • 142
  • $2
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0418
-0.2258
0.9679
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0458
-0.2382
0.9642
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0248
-0.1309
0.9806
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0248
-0.1303
0.9807

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