Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1988 | -0.5903 | 0.7791 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1649 | -0.5209 | 0.8255 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0322 | -0.1978 | 0.9769 |
7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0039 | -0.0642 | 0.9978 |
Relative Score | D | +0.024 | -0.050 | -0.033 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3366 | -0.8680 | 0.5862 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.2618 | -0.7168 | 0.6904 |
30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.0165 | -0.1377 | 0.9893 |
7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0081 | -0.0946 | 0.9951 |
Relative Score | A | -0.024 | +0.050 | +0.033 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.2677 | -0.7291 | 0.6827 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.2134 | -0.6189 | 0.7580 |
30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.0244 | -0.1678 | 0.9831 |
7 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0060 | -0.0794 | 0.9965 |
Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
Metaculus | A+ | -0.048 |