Will Laura Gillen (D) win New York's 4th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 231
  • 68
  • $43,723
Laura Gillen (D) is expected to win New York's 4th congressional district in the 2024 election if she is the incumbent member sworn in for the term beginning in 2025 and is still a Democrat. The outcome depends on her caucus affiliation after the 2024 election, as any other candidate not affiliated with either party would be considered. A consensus of credible reporting determines the resolution source. If Gillen wins, the market resolves to "Gillen".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $7,598

Will Democratic win the House race for NY-4? | :: Or another Democrat

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0488
-0.2496
0.9621
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0019
-0.0443
0.9990
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0691
-0.3049
0.9419
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.005
-0.004
  • Manifold
  • 230
  • 13
  • $1,398

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | NY-04 Anthony D'Esposito (R) - Won by 3.59% | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0484
-0.2485
0.9624
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0421
-0.2296
0.9683
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0317
-0.1962
0.9773
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0278
-0.1826
0.9805
Relative Score
A
-0.021
+0.055
+0.021
  • Polymarket
  • 87
  • 55
  • $34,727

NY-04 election: Gillen (D) vs. D'Esposito (R) | Gillen

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0552
-0.2679
0.9559
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0761
-0.3226
0.9345
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0756
-0.3216
0.9350
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0552
-0.2679
0.9559
Relative Score
D
+0.019
-0.051
-0.020
  • Overall
  • 231
  • 68
  • $43,723
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0508
-0.2553
0.9601
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0400
-0.1988
0.9673
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0359
-0.1793
0.9707
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0507
-0.2518
0.9595

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