Will Janelle Bynum (D) win Oregon's 5th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 236
  • 123
  • $50,162
This market resolves to "Bynum" if Democrat Janelle Bynum wins the congressional election in Oregon's 5th district. The resolution criteria are based on credible reporting and assume that the outcome will be determined by the actual vote results on November 5, 2024. If Bynum wins, the market will resolve to "Bynum". If any other candidate wins, the market will resolve 50-50. This market assesses the likelihood of Bynum emerging victorious in her bid for the House seat.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $16,698

Will Democratic win the House race for OR-5? | :: Or another Democrat

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0024
-0.0506
0.9987
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0030
-0.0562
0.9983
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0024
-0.0506
0.9987
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.018
-0.002
  • Manifold
  • 237
  • 28
  • $3,208

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | OR-05 Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) - Won by 2.08% - Full Toss-up | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1938
-0.5803
0.7860
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1330
-0.4537
0.8672
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1249
-0.4360
0.8775
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0225
-0.1624
0.9848
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.002
-0.004
  • Polymarket
  • 93
  • 95
  • $30,256

OR-05 election: Bynum (D) vs. Chavez-DeRemer (R) | Bynum

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1560
-0.5025
0.8373
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1394
-0.4673
0.8591
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1820
-0.5563
0.8022
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0775
-0.3262
0.9330
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
-0.001
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 236
  • 123
  • $50,162
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1174
-0.3778
0.8740
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0918
-0.3257
0.9082
30 Days Before Close
D
0.1023
-0.3341
0.8932
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0341
-0.1797
0.9722

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