Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?
  • 1,201
  • 591
  • $22
Emmanuel Macron is the current President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra. He has served since 2017 and previously held the position of Minister of Economy from 2014 to 2016. In his last election, Macron won a landslide victory in the second round with 20,743,128 votes. This year's election is expected to follow a similar pattern. Macron will be re-elected if electoral officials report that he has been declared the winner following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2019JulOctJan2020AprJulOctJan2021AprJulOctJan2022Apr

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 9
  • 9
  • $22

Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0093
-0.1016
0.9943
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0114
-0.1130
0.9929
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0202
-0.1532
0.9866
Relative Score
A-
-0.016
+0.060
+0.013
  • Metaculus
  • 1,201
  • 582

Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2119
-0.6168
0.7608
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2107
-0.6143
0.7625
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0119
-0.1155
0.9926
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0446
-0.2371
0.9660
Relative Score
D
+0.016
-0.060
-0.013
  • Overall
  • 1,201
  • 591
  • $22
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1106
-0.3592
0.8776
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1110
-0.3637
0.8777
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0119
-0.1155
0.9926
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0324
-0.1952
0.9763

Similar Questions

Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?
  • 3,472
  • $1,513,895
Kalshi
B
-0.006
Manifold
D
+0.016
Metaculus
A+
-0.069
Polymarket
D-
+0.025
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
  • 6,386
  • $2,534,311
Manifold
C-
+0.006
Polymarket
B
-0.006
Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election?
  • 1,025
  • $4,821,867
Manifold
B
-0.005
Polymarket
C-
+0.005
Will the winner of the 2024 presidential election also win the popular vote?
  • 130
  • $61,411
Kalshi
D-
+0.026
Manifold
A
-0.025
Metaculus
D-
+0.025
Will Vladimir Putin be reelected President of Russia in 2024?
  • 192
  • $385,435
Manifold
C+
-0.002
Polymarket
C
+0.002
Will Nayib Bukele win El Salvador's 2024 presidential election?
  • 57
  • $117,576
Manifold
C
+0.000
Polymarket
C+
-0.000