Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?
  • 365
  • 967
  • $326
Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? The outcome hinges on credible sources announcing bankruptcy before January 1st, 2025. This includes a corporate filing for Chapter 7 or 11 bankruptcy, or a merger/acquisition leading to such a declaration. The resolution criteria also consider X Corp.'s name change or structure alterations that don't result in a new controlling entity. A bankruptcy is considered if X Corp. itself files, its parent company does, or another acquiring company later declares bankruptcy after the acquisition.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0032
-0.0583
0.9982
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0024
-0.0501
0.9987
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0221
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0222
0.9997
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
-0.001
+0.000
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0008
-0.0285
0.9996
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0020
-0.0458
0.9989
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0171
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0142
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.000
+0.001
-0.000
  • Overall
  • 365
  • 967
  • $326
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0020
-0.0434
0.9989
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0022
-0.0479
0.9988
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0196
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0182
0.9998

Similar Questions

  • 1,880
  • $1,479,877

Kalshi
B-
-0.004
Manifold
C
+0.004
Polymarket
C+
-0.000
  • 306
  • $106,092

Kalshi
C+
-0.002
Manifold
D+
+0.012
Polymarket
C-
+0.009
  • 137
  • $78,528

Kalshi
D-
+0.032
Manifold
A
-0.032
  • 274
  • $4,282

Manifold
D+
+0.013
Polymarket
A-
-0.013
  • 6
  • $16,181

Kalshi
A
-0.021
Manifold
D
+0.021