Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the Florida senator to replace Marco Rubio?
  • 75
  • 3,055
  • $1,030,794
Ashley Moody is being considered by Governor Ron Desantis as a potential replacement for Senator Marco Rubio. The appointment process would involve Desantis nominating Moody to fill the seat for two years, followed by a special election to determine the final candidate. If Moody is appointed by June 30, 2025, this will result in her taking over the position and resolving the market to "Yes." A market resolution of "No" would occur if the appointment process is triggered but Moody does not take over the seat before the scheduled date or if another person is appointed first. The market's outcome will be based on official government information and credible reporting, with a focus on the initial individual appointed to replace Rubio.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability17Nov241Dec81522295Jan121926

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1600
-0.5108
0.8321
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2614
-0.7159
0.6910
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2025
-0.5978
0.7740
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0441
-0.2357
0.9664
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.021
+0.003
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2582
-0.7095
0.6955
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2605
-0.7142
0.6922
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1195
-0.4242
0.8842
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0095
1.0000
Relative Score
D
+0.017
-0.063
-0.015
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1777
-0.5473
0.8082
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2461
-0.6854
0.7126
30 Days Before Close
D
0.1008
-0.3820
0.9067
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0583
-0.2764
0.9529
Relative Score
A
-0.020
+0.074
+0.018
  • Overall
  • 75
  • 3,055
  • $1,030,794
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1986
-0.5892
0.7786
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2560
-0.7051
0.6986
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1409
-0.4680
0.8549
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0342
-0.1739
0.9731

Similar Questions

  • 2,895
  • $19,629,808

Kalshi
C
+0.002
Manifold
D-
+0.032
Metaculus
C
+0.003
Polymarket
A
-0.025
  • 4,848
  • $4,041,538

Kalshi
A
-0.034
Manifold
F
+0.039
Polymarket
C
+0.001
  • 807
  • $3,694,527

Kalshi
C
+0.001
Manifold
C
+0.002
Polymarket
C+
-0.001
  • 526
  • $1,797,279

Kalshi
A-
-0.011
Manifold
F
+0.037
Polymarket
A-
-0.014
  • 249
  • $792,729

Kalshi
C+
-0.002
Manifold
C
+0.001
Polymarket
C+
-0.000
  • 65
  • $42,958

Kalshi
C+
-0.000
Manifold
D
+0.016
Polymarket
A-
-0.016