Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?
  • 109
  • 4,848
  • $4,041,538
Mike Johnson's candidacy for Speaker of the House is being tracked, with the market resolving to "Yes" if he becomes the first-elected Speaker in the 119th Congress. The resolution criteria specify that only the first-elected Speaker will count towards the outcome, and the election must be finalized by June 30, 2025. If no one occupies the position on February 1st, 2025, the market will remain open until someone is elected. The primary source of information for this market is official government announcements, but credible reporting may also be used. The outcome is contingent upon Mike Johnson being elected to the speakership by a vote of the whole house.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2024NovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0032
-0.0586
0.9982
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0190
-0.1485
0.9874
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0041
-0.0660
0.9977
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0773
-0.3259
0.9331
Relative Score
A
-0.034
+0.088
+0.038
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0097
-0.1035
0.9941
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2103
-0.6136
0.7630
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0147
-0.1291
0.9906
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0340
-0.2039
0.9754
Relative Score
F
+0.039
-0.109
-0.043
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0093
-0.1015
0.9943
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0144
-0.1279
0.9908
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0155
-0.1330
0.9900
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0812
-0.3355
0.9289
Relative Score
C
+0.001
+0.002
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 109
  • 4,848
  • $4,041,538
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0074
-0.0878
0.9955
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0813
-0.2966
0.9138
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0114
-0.1094
0.9928
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0642
-0.2884
0.9458

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