Will Adam Schiff (D) win the 2024 California Senate seat?
  • 650
  • 113
  • $44,916
Resolves YES if Adam Schiff wins election as US Senator from California in 2024, or NO if he loses; resolves when the race is called by any of AP, Fox News, or NBC. A Democrat must win to resolve YES. Resolves once all three sources call the race for the same candidate, with official certification taking precedence. Markets will resolve at the time of official certification, regardless of later recounts or disputes. Resolution is based on Schiff's party affiliation if no winner is determined by election night.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2023JulOctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 652
  • 53
  • $200

Will Adam Schiff be elected as US Senator from California in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2126
-0.6181
0.7599
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1099
-0.4028
0.8958
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0022
-0.0484
0.9988
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0339
0.9994
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.003
+0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 209
  • 60
  • $44,716

Will a Democrat win California US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0010
-0.0324
0.9995
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0035
-0.0614
0.9980
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0251
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0217
0.9998
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.003
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 650
  • 113
  • $44,916
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1068
-0.3253
0.8797
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0567
-0.2321
0.9469
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0367
0.9992
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0278
0.9996

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