Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5929 | -1.4697 | 0.2862 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4840 | -1.1897 | 0.4008 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.6241 | -1.5606 | 0.2569 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.2704 | -0.7340 | 0.6783 |
Relative Score | C | +0.003 | -0.009 | -0.002 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1892 | -0.5709 | 0.7924 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.2022 | -0.5972 | 0.7744 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.2304 | -0.6539 | 0.7348 |
Relative Score | B- | -0.003 | +0.009 | +0.002 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3911 | -1.0203 | 0.5393 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3431 | -0.8934 | 0.5876 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.6241 | -1.5606 | 0.2569 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.2504 | -0.6939 | 0.7065 |
Kalshi | C | +0.003 |
Manifold | C- | +0.009 |
Polymarket | B | -0.007 |