Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.9318 | -3.3605 | 0.0359 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.7872 | -2.1824 | 0.1261 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5155 | -1.2659 | 0.3656 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.0880 | -0.3519 | 0.9214 |
| Relative Score | D | +0.016 | -0.049 | -0.016 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5992 | -1.4877 | 0.2801 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3737 | -0.9451 | 0.5365 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.4770 | -1.1733 | 0.4088 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0459 | -0.2410 | 0.9648 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.016 | +0.049 | +0.016 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7655 | -2.4241 | 0.1580 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5805 | -1.5637 | 0.3313 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.4963 | -1.2196 | 0.3872 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.0669 | -0.2965 | 0.9431 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | B | -0.006 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.007 |