Will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed such that no vehicle can pass over in 2023?
  • 376
  • 394
  • $1,309
The Kerch Bridge, currently under construction, is expected to be destroyed in 2023 such that no vehicle can pass over it. The event must result in the bridge being irreparably damaged or demolished. If the bridge is repaired or restored before January 1, 2024, allowing vehicles to cross it again, the event does not count as destruction. The outcome will be determined by Scott Alexander's judgment, and predictions will only affect individual track records on Metaculus.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 377
  • 216
  • $1,309

6. Will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over in 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0616
-0.2853
0.9496
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0415
-0.2278
0.9688
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0407
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0160
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.005
-0.006
-0.007
  • Metaculus
  • 375
  • 178

On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0476
-0.2462
0.9632
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0397
-0.2221
0.9704
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0048
-0.0717
0.9972
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0269
0.9996
Relative Score
B
-0.005
+0.006
+0.007
  • Overall
  • 376
  • 394
  • $1,309
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0546
-0.2658
0.9564
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0406
-0.2250
0.9696
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0032
-0.0562
0.9982
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0215
0.9997

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